📋 Your current CSP
The trade you're considering rolling.
🔄 The proposed roll
The new strike / expiry you'd open after closing the current one.
📊 Your 4 options compared
Path A — Roll out
STO new $30.00P at $4.95 (133 DTE)
Path B — Let it assign
(Only applies if ITM at expiry)
Path C — Let it expire
Wait 15 days — theta does the work
Path D — BTC + walk
Buy back at $1.75 and free the capital
Roll locks capital 133 days at sub-floor (0.56%/wk). That's worse than wheeling the cash elsewhere.
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When to roll, when to assign, when to expire
Rolling a cash-secured put feels safe because you avoid the "loss" of assignment. But rolling almost always trades short-term comfort for long-term suboptimal capital allocation. The framework rule on rolling is strict for exactly this reason.
The roll rule
Roll only when ALL of the following are true:
- The roll is for a credit (you collect more from the new sale than the BTC of the old)
- The new weekly cash-on-cash ≥ 1.2% on the new capital base
- You still want the shares at the new strike
- The new DTE is ≤ 30 days (anything longer = locking capital sub-floor)
- You are NOT rolling up — only down or sideways
When to let it assign
Letting the put assign is usually correct when:
- The roll fails the 1.2%/wk floor on the new capital base
- You have enough cash to cover the assignment without forced liquidation
- You can write a covered call at cost basis that pays for itself
- The cash freed by NOT rolling can earn more than the roll would have yielded
When to let it expire
If the put is OTM and BTC cost is below 10% of original premium, let it expire. Don't pay $0.05 to close a contract worth $0.05 — let theta finish the job and avoid the commission.
The roll trap
Rolling out 90+ days at a sub-1% weekly yield is the most common mistake in retail wheel trading. The capital is locked, the time value paid in the roll is wasted, and the trader spends 3 months waiting for an outcome they could have realized today.
The math is simple: if the roll yields 0.5%/week and you could redeploy that capital at 1.5%/week elsewhere, rolling costs you 1% per week × number of weeks locked. Over 12 weeks, that's a 12% opportunity cost on the capital base. Always run the math.
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